{"id":7570,"date":"2026-03-05T12:29:04","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T12:29:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ograsset.com\/?p=7570"},"modified":"2026-03-05T12:29:05","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T12:29:05","slug":"cbn-reforms-push-naira-to-13-year-annual-gain-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ograsset.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/05\/cbn-reforms-push-naira-to-13-year-annual-gain-report\/","title":{"rendered":"CBN reforms push naira to 13-year annual gain\u2013 Report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Investment house Comercio Partners has said that the year 2025 proved to be a transformative year for the naira, as it marked its first annual appreciation in 13 years, with the currency strengthening by approximately 6.87 per cent against the United States dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The experts, in their 2026 economic outlook titled \u2018Policy Shock to Structural Reset: Charting a Sustainable Economic Path\u2019, said Nigeria\u2019s economy is transitioning out of volatility. This period of turbulence was triggered by successive reforms and significant near-term adjustment costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The naira started the year at around N1,541\/$ in official markets and closed at about N1,435\/$ on 31 December 2025, narrowing the premium between the official and parallel markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comercio Partners said that the turnaround was underpinned by deliberate Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) measures, including the launch of the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Code to promote transparency and the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System for more efficient interbank trading. This performance reversed a long trend of chronic depreciation driven by structural imbalances. Instead, it delivered stability amid improved foreign-exchange liquidity, rising external reserves (up by over 11 per cent to bolster buffers), and renewed investor confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSeveral deliberate policy measures orchestrated by the CBN underpinned this turnaround.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Building on the foundational unification and liberalisation reforms initiated in 2023\u20132024, the bank deepened market-driven mechanisms throughout 2025. A cornerstone action came early in the year, on 28 January, when the CBN formally launched the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Code, adapting global best practices to promote transparency, accountability, and ethical conduct among banks, dealers, and participants, thereby reducing manipulation and enhancing trust in the system,\u201d read part of the report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The experts added that \u201cThese reforms attracted substantial capital inflows, reaching nearly $21bn in the first ten months alone, a 70 per cent surge from 2024, bolstered by higher remittances, portfolio investments, and oil-related earnings, while domestic refining capacity eased import pressures. \u201c The result manifested in sustained naira firmness, with the currency posting gains throughout much of the year, supported by a strengthening current account and ample external reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAs we enter 2026, early indications show continued stability, with the naira opening around N1,430\/$, assuming reforms persist and global conditions remain supportive. Overall, these actions shifted Nigeria\u2019s FX landscape from fragility to resilience, laying a foundation for broader economic recovery.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Parallel to the currency\u2019s recovery, Comercio Partners said that Nigeria\u2019s inflation narrative in 2025 changed character, moving from a cycle driven by discrete shocks to one shaped by policy restraint and supply adjustments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe inflection point came in January 2025 with the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index by the National Bureau of Statistics. The reference year moved from 2009 to 2024, and the consumption basket and weights were revised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis adjustment reset the inflation series. Headline inflation dropped from 34.8 per cent on the old base to 24.48 per cent on the new base. The decline reflected measurement changes rather than an immediate price decline. Still, it altered the inflation profile by reducing apparent volatility, especially in food, and by placing greater weight on services and other non-food components.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Highlighting the connection between inflation and exchange rate, the experts said that \u201cafter severe volatility in 2023 and 2024, driven by FX shortages, multiple exchange rate windows, and policy uncertainty, the naira stabilised in 2025. FX market unification and improved liquidity narrowed the gap between official and parallel rates, thereby reducing speculative pressure. This stability limited imported inflation and reduced the need for frequent price adjustments, particularly for food and imported inputs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding this year\u2019s inflation forecast, the investment firm stated, \u201cThe inflation outlook for H1 \u201826 is asymmetric, with downside risks vulnerable to policy, FX, and supply shocks. Inflation in the first half of the year is expected to remain on a disinflationary path, but at a slower, less linear pace than in late 2025. Food supply dynamics, FX stability, and the timing of monetary policy adjustments will shape the trajectory.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a base-case scenario, headline inflation is projected to settle in the 14\u201316 per cent range, provided there is policy continuity, gradual monetary easing, and a broadly stable FX market. The best-case scenario places headline inflation at 10\u201311 per cent. This outcome requires sustained FX stability, disciplined policy coordination, and a strong agricultural cycle. For the worst-case scenario, inflation is seen re-accelerating to 18\u201322 per cent if there is policy slippage and renewed FX stress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the mostly optimistic outlook, Nigeria\u2019s debt position remains a significant constraint, with debt servicing budgeted at N15.52tn for 2026, representing roughly 45 per cent of projected revenues. This crowding-out effect limits fiscal space for vital infrastructure and social investments. However, non-oil federation revenues showed a massive 40.5 per cent year-on-year increase by August 2025, suggesting that tax reforms and improved collection efficiency are creating a more durable revenue base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As 2026 is a pre-election year ahead of the 2027 polls, a modest GDP acceleration to the 4.0\u20134.5 per cent range is expected, propelled by anticipated fiscal expansion as the government builds political capital. While early pre-election boosts in Nigeria were often oil-driven, the current uptick is expected to be more balanced, supported by non-oil activity and a partial recovery in oil production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The baseline outlook for 2026 is one of guarded optimism, with the experts asserting that if implementation of structural reforms remains robust and external factors like oil prices stay supportive, the Nigerian economy could mark a full transition from stabilisation to tangible recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are expected to reward this stability, with capital flows already turning the corner. Nigeria witnessed over $20bn in capital inflows in the first ten months of 2025 alone. While risks such as global shocks or policy slippage remain, the 2025 foundation has positioned the country for sustained external strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source:<\/em> https:\/\/punchng.com\/cbn-reforms-push-naira-to-13-year-annual-gain-report\/<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Investment house Comercio Partners has said that the year 2025 proved to be a transformative year for the naira, as it marked its first annual appreciation in 13 years, with the currency strengthening by approximately 6.87 per cent against the United States dollar. The experts, in their 2026 economic outlook titled \u2018Policy Shock to Structural… <\/p>\n

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