{"id":7331,"date":"2026-02-11T11:33:53","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T11:33:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ograsset.com\/?p=7331"},"modified":"2026-02-11T11:33:54","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T11:33:54","slug":"nigeria-posts-10-83bn-trade-surplus-on-stronger-exports","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ograsset.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/11\/nigeria-posts-10-83bn-trade-surplus-on-stronger-exports\/","title":{"rendered":"Nigeria posts $10.83bn trade surplus on stronger exports"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Nigeria posts $10.83bn trade surplus on stronger exports<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of $10.83bn, with exports of $44.06bn outpacing imports of $33.23bn, and strengthening its external trade position, in the first nine months of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria\u2019s recent Quarterly Statistical Bulletin showed that in the January\u2013September 2025 period, the country recorded a positive trade balance of $10.83bn. This means that amid ongoing reforms, the country has sustained improvement in its trade performance, driven largely by stronger export earnings and a moderation in import growth over the nine months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The average export growth rate stood at 0.76 per cent per month, indicating a steady upward trend in goods and services sold abroad, according to The PUNCH\u2019s<\/em> analysis of the data. By contrast, the average import growth rate was negative at -0.08 per cent per month, suggesting a marginal decline in foreign purchases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts explained that the combination of rising exports is a welcome development, and slowing imports supported Nigeria\u2019s balance of trade and eased pressure on foreign exchange demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly breakdown of the growth trend showed that Nigeria recorded its widest trade surplus gap in June 2025 at $1.89bn, while the narrowest surplus was seen in March at $580.68m. Export performance peaked in July at $5.85bn, followed by May at $5.18bn, while March and January were the weakest export months at $4.54bn and $4.60bn, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the import side, July recorded the highest inflow at $4.46bn, while June and September posted the lowest import values of $3.08bn and $3.23bn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data confirmed that Nigeria\u2019s trade reforms were yielding results, industry stakeholders who spoke in separate phone interviews told The PUNCH. <\/em>But they warned that the sustainability of the surplus depended on reducing the economy\u2019s heavy reliance on crude oil exports and accelerating diversification into non-oil sectors, especially agriculture and manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil drive surplus<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A closer look at the composition of exports showed that oil remained the dominant driver of Nigeria\u2019s external trade surplus. Oil exports, comprising crude oil, gas, and petroleum products, amounted to $37.13bn during the period, accounting for 84.28 per cent of total exports. By contrast, non-oil exports stood at $6.93bn, representing a far lesser 15.72 per cent of export earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historically, the oil trade has dominated Nigeria\u2019s trade profile. Successive Federal Government administrations have also recognised that while higher oil receipts boosted headline export figures and supported the balance of trade, they also exposed the economy to volatility in global energy markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In January, the Nigerian Export Promotion Council, an agency tasked with facilitating diversification from oil exports, reported that non-oil exports rose to $6.1bn in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OPS reacts<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A former Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry Export Group, Dr Bamidele Ayemibo, welcomed the $10.83bn trade surplus, but raised concerns about the country\u2019s dependence on oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe balance of trade makes a lot of sense, it\u2019s been positive for a while, so sometimes when I hear people talk about exports has for a long time now been a lot better than imports, the only challenge is the contribution of the non-oil in that export is low,\u201d Ayemibo said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He warned that shifts in global oil dynamics could quickly erode Nigeria\u2019s gains. \u201cBecause we are depending too much on oil, it doesn\u2019t make that growth or that balance sustainable. India is likely going to start buying oil from Venezuela, Russia is still producing and not part of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and if Russia increases production, it can crash the price. If the price goes down, we\u2019ll be in trouble again because of our dependence,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ayemibo said Nigeria had experienced similar shocks in the past and risked repeating them if it failed to act decisively. \u201cThe reliance on crude oil as a major source is a major concern, and it\u2019s a high risk. It\u2019s a risk that we have experienced before, and we might experience it again if we don\u2019t do something about it. The balance is necessary, but I don\u2019t see us sustaining it if we don\u2019t really take non-oil export support very seriously,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond oil prices, analysts identified several factors that supported export growth and moderated imports during the period. These included improved refinery capacity, relative stability in the foreign exchange market, and renewed emphasis on agriculture and local production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Segun Kuti-George, said the positive trade balance reflected a healthier alignment between exports and imports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is common knowledge that any economy that imports more than it exports will have a disequilibrium in the balance of trade. That is not good for any economy. The fact that we are recording a positive balance of trade now means that we are exporting more than we are importing,\u201d Kuti-George said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He attributed part of the improvement to rising oil and non-oil exports supported by domestic refining. \u201cOne of the factors is the increase in both oil and non-oil exports occasioned by the Dangote Refinery and some other refineries that are also coming up. You will also observe that there is a kind of unity in the petroleum market now, as you can see in the prices that are out there,\u201d the NASSI VP remarked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kuti-George also pointed to improved currency market conditions. \u201cThe bridge between the alternative exchange market and the official exchange market is close enough,\u201d he said, noting that a narrower gap helped exporters plan and reduced speculative demand for foreign exchange.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agriculture also played a role in curbing imports. He explained: \u201cAnother factor is the emphasis on the promotion of agricultural products. More attention is being paid to agriculture now with a lot of investment in rice and cassava, and some other products that we have been essentially importing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He cited increased domestic rice production as an example and a reported Lagos State agreement to boost rice production, among other things. \u201cWhen we can feed ourselves and reduce importation, you will experience this kind of result,\u201d Kuti-George noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agricultural impact<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stakeholders agreed that agriculture offered Nigeria a near-term opportunity to strengthen non-oil exports and support foreign exchange inflows, given its relatively short gestation period compared with manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The former LCCI Export Group chief, Ayemibo, described agriculture as Nigeria\u2019s \u201cquick win\u201d in the diversification drive. \u201cOur quick win is agric. The beauty of agric is that it has a short gestation, so if we need results in a year, we can get them from agric,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He highlighted global demand trends, particularly for soybeans. The demand for soybeans is about $100bn, and China is the largest buyer of soybeans, buying about 60 to 70 per cent of soybean production in the world. Soya beans are now being used to replace some hydrocarbons used in producing plastic and rubber materials, so the demand is increasing,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ayemibo said Nigeria could leverage trade agreements to secure market access. \u201cJust the way we signed CEPA recently, we can sign similar agreements with China to guarantee us even 10 per cent of what they buy. If China is buying 60 to 70 per cent of the world\u2019s soybeans every year and they buy even a fraction from us, that is a major boost,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He added that targeted financing could unlock production. \u201cThe Bank of Agriculture can support farmers to produce soybeans, and then we can export to China. Agric will help us achieve our FX demand in the short term,\u201d Ayemibo said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Manufacturing, long-term anchor<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While agriculture offered short-term gains, stakeholders stressed that manufacturing remained critical for sustainable export growth and value addition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ayemibo said long-term diversification required a shift away from exporting raw commodities. \u201cOf course, we need to do manufacturing, because manufacturing will give us leverage, but for the long term, we definitely need to increase our manufacturing sector and slow down on export of commodities, both solid minerals and agri commodities,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry operators, including the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria Export Promotion Group, argued that manufacturing also supported agricultural exports by processing raw produce into higher-value goods, improving shelf life and meeting international standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Manufacturers warned that despite the headline trade surplus, non-oil exports, particularly from the manufacturing sector, continued to face structural and regulatory constraints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Secretary of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria Export Promotion Group, Dr Benedict Obhiosa, questioned the depth of non-oil export growth. \u201cThe question to ask ourselves is how well the non-oil export is growing? I know of some companies that could not do many things last year,\u201d Obhiosa bemoaned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He disclosed that bureaucratic bottlenecks around the ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme had hampered exporters. He noted, \u201cIn a year, over 60 companies applied for ETLS and over 500 products were registered. We wrote to the Nigeria Export Promotion Council asking them what they are doing to support non-oil export, even though they have a record volume of export growth.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obhiosa said many firms were unable to ship goods because approvals were delayed. \u201cThe NEPC has not been able to promote it as it should. Our companies are not getting ETLS approvals. Companies like CHI Limited and Lucky Fibre Industries are on two batches of ETLS that they have not secured, and that has really hampered their efforts,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He explained that exporters were forced to wait to avoid paying duties. \u201cIf they ship it out before approval, they will pay duty, so they are waiting. Their export volume has dwindled,\u201d Obhiosa said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regulatory hurdles<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obhiosa also questioned the composition of reported non-oil export growth. \u201cIt appears non-oil is growing, but the breakdown still shows that oil is the bigger contributor. Perhaps it is solid minerals or agri-produce,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He argued that manufacturing exports remained weak. \u201cThe manufacturing sector\u2019s contribution to non-oil exports remains low,\u201d he said, adding that regulatory rigidity from agencies such as NAFDAC and the Standards Organisation of Nigeria created impediments to trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The MANEG Secretary warned that the lack of incubation and processing infrastructure undermined value addition. The Senate passed a bill that non-oil value addition is the key to products going out of Nigeria. The process to carry out that standard has not been properly fixed. There is no incubation setup where companies can, on their own, start processing, pay a fee to do that, and sell their products. So non-oil exports will still be highly dependent on agri-produce, because the manufacturing sector\u2019s contribution to non-oil exports remains low,\u201d Obhiosa said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stakeholders agreed that Nigeria\u2019s $10.83bn trade surplus marked a positive milestone but cautioned that sustaining and expanding it required deeper diversification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NASSI\u2019s VP Kuti-George maintained that export promotion agencies played an important role in \u201cencouraging production of standard and exportable products and also showcasing and marketing our products in the international market.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He noted that NEPC-sponsored NASSI members to participate in trade fairs in Egypt, Kigali, the United Kingdom and the United States in 2025 had helped raise the visibility of Nigerian products. \u201cAwareness is very important. If we are making good products and they are not being showcased, it will be like someone winking in the dark,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source:<\/em> https:\/\/punchng.com\/nigeria-posts-10-83bn-trade-surplus-on-stronger-exports\/<\/em><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nigeria posts $10.83bn trade surplus on stronger exports Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of $10.83bn, with exports of $44.06bn outpacing imports of $33.23bn, and strengthening its external trade position, in the first nine months of 2025. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria\u2019s recent Quarterly Statistical Bulletin showed that in the January\u2013September 2025 period, the… <\/p>\n

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